Surprise and Buckeye Housing Market Update: October 2026

If you own a home in Surprise or Buckeye, or you are thinking about buying in the West Valley, the September numbers are in. The short version: prices are close to where they were a year ago, homes are taking a little longer to sell, and buyers have more to choose from. Here is what the data shows and what it means for your next move.

Figures are for single-family homes unless noted. They come from the Phoenix REALTORS Local Market Update for September 2026 (ARMLS data, current as of October 3, 2026), the Zillow Home Value Index through September 30, 2026, and Redfin's city data for September 2026. Each source measures a little differently, so each number below names where it comes from.

Surprise: steady prices, slower contracts

According to the Phoenix REALTORS September 2026 report for Surprise:

• Median sales price: $437,000, up 0.5% from $435,000 a year earlier. For the first nine months of 2026 the median was $430,990, unchanged from the same period in 2025.
• Closed sales: 257, down 9.2% from September 2025. Year to date, closings are up 10.1%.
• New listings: 444, up 5.0%.
• Pending sales (new contracts): 191, down 34.6%.
• Days on market until sale: 97, up from 90.
• Inventory: 1,282 homes for sale, or 4.2 months of supply (4.3 a year ago).
• Sellers received 99.1% of list price on average, the same as last September.

Zillow's home value index for Surprise was $416,014 at the end of September, down 1.7% over the year. Redfin reported that 39.3% of Surprise homes for sale had a price drop in September.

What it means: Surprise prices are holding, but buyers are taking their time. More new listings and fewer new contracts usually mean sellers compete harder for the buyers who are out there. Homes priced in line with recent sales still close near asking. Homes that start too high tend to sit and then reduce.

Browse current homes on the Surprise listings page or check the Surprise market page for live numbers.

Buckeye: more sales, more inventory

According to the Phoenix REALTORS September 2026 report for Buckeye:

• Median sales price: $397,990, down 0.5% from $400,000. Year to date, the median is $400,000, down 2.2%.
• Closed sales: 253, up 11.9%. Year to date, closings are up 8.4%.
• New listings: 320, up 3.6%.
• Pending sales: 164, down 23.4%.
• Days on market until sale: 87, up from 82.
• Inventory: 1,079 homes for sale, up 12.6%, or 4.7 months of supply (4.5 a year ago).
• Sellers received 98.4% of list price, down from 99.3%.

Zillow's home value index for Buckeye was $391,189 at the end of September, down 1.9% over the year. Redfin reported that 43.4% of Buckeye homes for sale had a price drop in September, up 6.7 points from a year earlier.

What it means: Buckeye is closing more homes than last year, but inventory has grown faster than sales. That gives buyers more room to negotiate on price, repairs or closing costs. Buckeye also has a lot of new construction, so resale sellers are often competing with builder incentives. If you are curious about one of the newer master-planned areas, my post on Teravalis in Buckeye covers what is being built there. Live numbers are on the Buckeye market page.

How the rest of the West Valley compares

The Greater Phoenix picture is similar. Phoenix REALTORS reported a metro-wide single-family median of $475,000 in September, down 2.1% from nearly $485,000. Inventory rose 6.7%, months of supply reached 4.3 (4.0 a year ago), and sellers received 98.1% of list price. Pending sales fell 40.1% for the month, while year-to-date closed sales were still up 2.9%.

Nearby, Goodyear's September median was $460,000 (down 5.2%) with 3.9 months of supply, and Avondale's year-to-date median was $419,190, up 0.3%. Zillow's September home value index shows small year-over-year moves across the area:

• Peoria: $480,440, down 0.7%
• Goodyear: $463,514, down 0.9%
• Avondale: $392,912, down 1.2%
• Phoenix: $404,067, down 1.2%
• Litchfield Park: $515,165, up 0.1%

If you are deciding between cities, my Surprise vs. Buckeye vs. Goodyear comparison walks through the differences in homes, commutes and new construction.

What this means if you are selling

• Price for today's market, not last spring's. With more than four months of supply in both cities, buyers compare every option before they make an offer.
• Expect to talk about concessions. Phoenix REALTORS board president Sammy Glassman said seller concessions, such as help with a rate buydown or closing costs, are a tool for both sides, especially when resale homes are compared with new construction.
• Get a real number first. A free home value estimate built on recent nearby sales is a better starting point than an online estimate alone.

What this means if you are buying

• You have more options and more time than buyers had in recent years, especially in Buckeye.
• Ask about price history. A home with a recent reduction may have more room to negotiate.
• Compare resale homes and new builds on the full monthly payment, including any seller or builder credits. A lender can show you both side by side.

I am a real estate agent, not a lender. Talk with a licensed lender about rates, loan programs and what you qualify for.

Want the numbers for your street?

City-wide medians are a starting point. Your home's value depends on your neighborhood, lot, updates and the sales right around you. Request a free home value estimate, browse Buckeye listings, or schedule a free consultation. I work across Surprise, Buckeye, Goodyear, Peoria, Avondale, Litchfield Park and Phoenix, and my team also covers Casa Grande, Maricopa and Pinal County. Hablo español.

Jesus Sanchez
Sanchez Group | Real Broker
480-531-0428 · card.realsanchez.com
Real Broker AZ, LLC · 3707 E Southern Ave #1074, Mesa, AZ 85206