Surprise and Buckeye Housing Market Update: November 2026

The October numbers are in for Surprise and Buckeye, and the picture is consistent with what we saw earlier this fall. Prices are close to where they were a year ago, more homes are sitting on the market, and fewer new contracts were written than in October 2025. Here is what the data shows and what it means if you are buying or selling in the West Valley.

Figures are for single-family homes unless noted. They come from the Phoenix REALTORS Local Market Update for October 2026 (ARMLS data, current as of November 3, 2026). The reports do not account for sale concessions or down payment assistance, so the price a seller actually nets can be a little different from the published median. Each number below names the city it applies to.

Surprise: prices holding, more homes to choose from

According to the Phoenix REALTORS October 2026 report for Surprise:

• Median sales price: $430,000, up 1.8% from $422,570 in October 2025. For the first 10 months of 2026 the median was $430,990, up 0.2% from the same period in 2025.
• Closed sales: 243, down 21.1% from October 2025. Year to date, closings are still up 6.9%.
• New listings: 451, down 4.2%.
• Pending sales (new contracts): 182, down 37.0%.
• Days on market until sale: 81, the same as October 2025. For the year so far, the average is 89 days, up 11.3%.
• Inventory: 1,424 homes for sale, up 10.8%, or 4.7 months of supply (4.5 a year ago).
• Sellers received 98.3% of list price on average, down from 98.9%.

Compared with September, the October median was a little lower ($430,000 after $437,000), inventory rose from 1,282 to 1,424 homes, and months of supply moved from 4.2 to 4.7. October is often a quieter month than September, so the year-over-year figures are the fairer comparison.

What it means: Surprise prices are holding, but buyers have more to look at and are taking their time before they write an offer. Homes priced in line with recent sales still sell close to asking. Homes that start too high tend to sit. Browse current homes on the Surprise listings page or check the Surprise market page for live numbers.

Buckeye: a slightly lower median, more inventory

According to the Phoenix REALTORS October 2026 report for Buckeye:

• Median sales price: $399,000, down 0.2% from $399,995 in October 2025. Year to date, the median is $400,000, down 2.0%.
• Closed sales: 187, down 12.6% from October 2025. Year to date, closings are still up 6.6%.
• New listings: 310, down 14.6%.
• Pending sales: 156, down 36.1%.
• Days on market until sale: 85, up from 81. For the year so far, the average is 86 days, up 6.2%.
• Inventory: 1,115 homes for sale, up 12.5%, or 4.9 months of supply (4.5 a year ago).
• Sellers received 98.7% of list price on average, down slightly from 98.9%.

September was a stronger closing month in Buckeye (253 sales). October slowed, which is typical late in the year, but inventory kept growing.

What it means: Buckeye is still closing more homes for the year than it had at this point in 2025, but supply has grown faster than sales. That gives buyers more room to ask about price, repairs, closing costs or a rate buydown. Resale sellers are often competing with new construction and builder incentives. If you want a closer look at one of the larger master-planned areas, my post on Teravalis in Buckeye covers what is being built there. Live numbers are on the Buckeye market page.

How the rest of the West Valley compares

The same October reports show a similar pattern in nearby cities, still using single-family numbers:

• Goodyear: median sales price $475,000, up 0.9%; 758 homes for sale, up 14.8%; 4.7 months of supply; sellers received 98.2% of list price.
• Peoria: median sales price $515,000, down 0.9%; 937 homes for sale, up 18.8%; 4.6 months of supply; sellers received 98.2% of list price.
• Phoenix: median sales price $481,998, up 2.6%; 3,380 homes for sale, up 14.3%; 4.2 months of supply; sellers received 97.7% of list price.

Pending sales were down sharply year over year in these cities as well, while year-to-date closed sales in Surprise and Buckeye are still ahead of 2025. If you are choosing between cities, my Surprise vs. Buckeye vs. Goodyear comparison walks through the differences in homes, commutes and new construction, and our earlier October market update has the September figures.

National mortgage rates remain part of the story. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average U.S. 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% as of November 5, 2026, down from 7.24% the week before, but above the 6.22% average a year earlier. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment and loan type.

What this means if you are selling

• Price for today's market, not last spring's. With about 4.7 to 4.9 months of supply in Surprise and Buckeye, buyers compare several homes before they make an offer.
• Be ready to talk about concessions. Help with closing costs or a rate buydown can matter as much as a small price cut, especially when a resale is next to a new build with builder incentives.
• Get a real number first. A free home value estimate built on recent nearby sales is a better starting point than an online estimate alone. For a longer selling checklist, see Selling Your Home in Surprise and the West Valley This Fall and Winter.

What this means if you are buying

• You have more choices than a year ago, and more time to inspect, compare and negotiate. That does not mean every seller will cut the price. Well-priced homes in good condition are still selling close to list.
• Get preapproved before you tour, and tell your lender and agent if you plan to use down payment help. Our guide to Arizona down payment assistance explains the main programs, and we can connect you with a lender.
• Look at both resale and new construction. Builder incentives change, and so do the trade-offs. I can help you compare both on the same weekend.

Ready to talk through the numbers?

Schedule a free consultation and we will look at the homes and recent sales that match your budget and timing. I work with Real and help buyers and sellers across Surprise, Buckeye, Goodyear, Peoria, Avondale, Litchfield Park and Phoenix, and my team also covers Casa Grande, Maricopa and Pinal County. Hablo español.

I am a real estate agent, not a lender. Market figures here are from the sources named above and can change from month to month. Mortgage rates are national averages, not a quote.

Jesus Sanchez
Sanchez Group | Real Broker
480-531-5584 · card.realsanchez.com